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Apr 16Liked by Dougald Lamont

You write, "... are due to conflicts and political events..." but there is also a monopolist (OPEC+) setting price. Back pre-1970's when the Texas Railroad commission were setting the oil price there was almost negligible nominal inflation, and no nominal inflation pressure from oil. (You can fact check me, I'm just shooting out a comment from dim memory.)

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Oil prices averaged something like $2 a barrel for over a decade, but there were a series of events that resulted in upheaval. There was intensifying Middle East conflict. Readily accessible oil was running out in the U.S., then the U.S. went off the gold standard. So there was a much greater reliance on oil, not just for the U.S. but for the developed world. The price of oil was increased by OPEC in the 70s in retaliation for the U.S. hiking its prices on some other commodity. That was a huge shock and resulted in huge amounts of money flowing out of developed countries to oil-producing ones. The high price also drove a frenzy of new investment because oil that used to be to expensive to pump was profitable.

So, at the same time that the high price of oil means everything costs more - heat, light, power, transportation - new capital investment is going into pumping more high-priced energy, instead of into productive industries.

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